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Dallas Cowboys

8-6 HC Jason Garrett
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Indianapolis Colts

8-6 HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-12-16 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
37.6%
IND
62.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.151 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22 15–29
–
IND 26 19–33
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

DAL

David Irving DE Out Ankle
Zack Martin G Out Knee
Geoff Swaim TE Out Wrist
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Not Injury Related
Lance Lenoir WR Questionable Illness
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Groin
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck

IND

Mark Glowinski G Out Ankle
Michael Mitchell S Out Calf
Skai Moore LB Out Neck
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Ankle
Ryan Hewitt TE Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 0
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:13 TD IND (6:13) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG IND (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 10
  • Q3 11:27 TD IND (11:27) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – IND 16
  • Q3 01:41 FG IND (1:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 20
  • Q4 07:01 FG IND (7:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DAL 0 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (10:02) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones, RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at DAL 44. 53-D.Leonard to DAL 44 for no gain (86-D.Schultz).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (14:15) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 5 for -2 yards (35-P.Desir). FUMBLES (35-P.Desir), and recovers at IND 5. DAL-76-X.Su'a-Filo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 54%

    (3:48) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott left tackle to IND 38 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore II).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 19 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 39%

    (2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to IND 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on DAL-91-L.Ladouceur, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 6.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (7:53) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to IND 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-C.Rogers to IND 11 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (1:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Beasley (53-D.Leonard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (7:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 14 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 17-A.Hurns to IND 41 for 9 yards (35-P.Desir, 29-M.Hooker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 89-B.Jarwin INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Odum at IND 8. 30-G.Odum to IND 22 for 14 yards (52-C.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →