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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 26

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 89-B.Jarwin INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Odum at IND 8. 30-G.Odum to IND 22 for 14 yards (52-C.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP