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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to IND 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on DAL-91-L.Ladouceur, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model