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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PIT
45.6%
BAL
54.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.207 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Doubtful Knee
Coty Sensabaugh CB Questionable Toe
Artie Burns CB Questionable Ankle

BAL

James Hurst T Out Back
Ronnie Stanley T Out Ankle
Tim Williams LB Out Ankle
Alex Collins RB Questionable Foot
Bradley Bozeman G Questionable Calf
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Thigh
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Lasley WR Questionable Hamstring
Alex Lewis G Questionable Neck
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
BAL 16

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:05 FG BAL (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 01:09 TD PIT (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 30-J.Conner for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 3
  • Q2 07:23 TD PIT (7:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – BAL 3
  • Q2 04:40 FG BAL (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 14 – BAL 6
  • Q3 06:50 TD PIT (6:50) 7-B.Roethlisberger up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – BAL 6
  • Q3 03:01 TD BAL (3:01) 34-A.Collins right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – BAL 12
  • Q4 08:29 FG PIT (8:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 23 – BAL 13
  • Q4 05:27 FG BAL (5:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 23 – BAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 46%

    (12:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%

    (9:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger punts 27 yards to BAL 11, Center-53-M.Pouncey. 32-E.Weddle to BAL 29 for 18 yards (13-J.Washington). Roethlisberger punts out of shotgun.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 25 for 9 yards (37-J.Allen).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (9:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to BAL 35 for 6 yards (22-J.Smith).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%

    (1:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to BAL 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 15 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 1 yard (48-P.Onwuasor; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (8:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (5:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree to BAL 30 for 7 yards. Lateral to 37-J.Allen to BAL 22 for -8 yards. Lateral to 13-J.Brown to BAL 20 for -2 yards. PENALTY on BAL-13-J.Brown, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at BAL 20.