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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP