Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(14:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 1 yard (48-P.Onwuasor; 36-C.Clark). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model