Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TB offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- TB on 7 more days rest than ATL
- TB defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
TB
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:43 TD TB (11:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 6 – ATL 0
- Q1 08:29 TD ATL (8:29) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 6
- Q2 12:27 TD ATL (12:27) 25-I.Smith left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 13
- Q2 07:38 TD ATL (7:38) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 20
- Q2 00:32 TD TB (:32) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ATL 21
- Q2 00:06 FG ATL (:06) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 13 – ATL 24
- Q3 02:43 FG TB (2:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 16 – ATL 24
- Q4 11:40 TD TB (11:40) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 22 – ATL 24
- Q4 06:34 TD ATL (6:34) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 22 – ATL 30
- Q4 03:52 TD TB (3:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 25-P.Barber for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – ATL 31
- Q4 01:16 FG ATL (1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play. TB 29 – ATL 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%
(4:53) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to ATL 14, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 14. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 14 for no gain (17-J.Watson). Penalty on ATL-28-J.Bethel, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(10:54) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to ATL 28, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 42 for 14 yards (53-A.Taylor).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 90Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EPp(convert) 76%
(3:34) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to TB 39, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Jackson to TB 48 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to TB 34, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 40 for 6 yards (28-J.Bethel).
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Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%
(2:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%
(:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-83-R.Gage.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 39 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 56%
(1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.