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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to ATL 28, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 42 for 14 yards (53-A.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model