Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(13:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to TB 34, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 40 for 6 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.44 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model