Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Tom Brady (NE): +0.227 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- JAX defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- JAX offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
NE
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:52 TD JAX (7:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 10-D.Moncrief for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – JAX 6
- Q1 02:18 TD JAX (2:18) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 84-K.Cole for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-D.Hightower]. NE 0 – JAX 13
- Q2 02:49 FG NE (2:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – JAX 14
- Q2 00:14 TD JAX (:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – JAX 20
- Q3 07:54 FG JAX (7:54) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NE 3 – JAX 24
- Q3 01:47 TD NE (1:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – JAX 24
- Q4 14:16 FG NE (14:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – JAX 24
- Q4 07:48 TD JAX (7:48) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – JAX 30
- Q4 03:48 TD NE (3:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – JAX 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%
(11:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 62%
(6:14) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for 5 yards (51-J.Bentley).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 17%
(15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%
(11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to NE 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-26-J.Wilson.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(2:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:49) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(7:54) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to NE 41, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%
(14:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%
(9:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NE 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-30-C.Grant.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 74%
(8:01) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 39 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner).