Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 85

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

(6:49) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.50 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model