4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 36

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP