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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

NE
51.7%
PIT
48.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.120 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.277 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 26
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Alan Branch DT Out Knee
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Rib
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Ankle
David Harris LB Questionable Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Brandon King S Questionable Hamstring
Eric Lee DE Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Calf
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Foot

PIT

Vance McDonald TE Out Shoulder
Coty Sensabaugh CB Questionable Shoulder
Joe Haden CB Questionable Fibula
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
PIT 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:03 TD NE (9:03) 34-R.Burkhead right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 05:37 TD PIT (5:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 12:20 FG PIT (12:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 7 – PIT 10
  • Q2 09:08 FG NE (9:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:30 TD PIT (:30) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-M.Bryant for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – PIT 16
  • Q3 08:56 TD NE (8:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-B.Cooks for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – PIT 17
  • Q3 01:38 TD PIT (1:38) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – PIT 23
  • Q4 04:00 FG NE (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 19 – PIT 24
  • Q4 01:00 TD NE (1:00) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 25 – PIT 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to NE 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:21) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 24 for 2 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (9:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (9:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to PIT 6 for 10 yards (25-A.Burns, 23-M.Mitchell).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 47%

    (6:46) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to NE 11, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to PIT 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to NE 28, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%

    (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to NE 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-D.Amendola to NE 23 for 11 yards (54-L.Fort).