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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 16

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to PIT 6 for 10 yards (25-A.Burns, 23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model