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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 64

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 24 for 2 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model