4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

7-6 HC Jim Caldwell
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-9 HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread PK O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DET
42.7%
TB
57.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.015 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DET 22 15–29
–
TB 23 16–30
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Rick Wagner T Out Ankle
Sam Martin P Questionable right Foot
Ameer Abdullah RB Questionable Neck
Jamal Agnew CB Questionable Knee
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Emmett Cleary T Questionable Ankle
T.J. Lang G Questionable Foot
Corey Robinson T Questionable Foot
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable right Hand
Travis Swanson C Questionable Knee
Cornelius Washington DE Questionable Shoulder

TB

Vernon Hargreaves CB Out Hamstring
Clinton McDonald DT Out Back
Josh Robinson S Out Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Out Concussion
Ryan Russell DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
TB 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 TD DET (8:10) (Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 02:55 TD TB (2:55) 22-D.Martin right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 07:41 TD DET (7:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – TB 7
  • Q3 03:18 TD DET (3:18) (Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – TB 7
  • Q4 13:47 TD TB (13:47) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – TB 13
  • Q4 08:10 TD TB (8:10) 66-L.Wester reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass short left to 66-L.Wester for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-A.Spence]. DET 21 – TB 20
  • Q4 00:25 FG DET (:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 24 – TB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:14) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to TB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to DET 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, touched at DET 23, ball out of bounds at DET 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (12:31) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 26%

    (9:34) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:19) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 43%

    (4:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DET 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-T.Jones to DET 23 for -1 yards (12-C.Godwin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%

    (:25) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →