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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 66

Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model