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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 43

Detroit Lions 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model