4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NYG
50.0%
SF
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.256 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.057 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
SF 21
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Devon Kennard LB Out Quadricep
Keenan Robinson LB Out Quadricep
Donte Deayon CB Doubtful Ankle
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Neck
Calvin Munson LB Questionable Quadricep
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Ankle
Kerry Wynn DE Questionable Knee

SF

George Kittle TE Out Ankle
Elijah Lee LB Out Knee
Trent Taylor WR Out Ribs
Aaron Lynch DE Out Calf
Solomon Thomas DE Questionable Knee
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 21
–
SF 31

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:44 FG SF (12:44) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. Penalty on NYG-21-L.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 07:28 FG NYG (7:28) 2-A.Rosas 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – SF 3
  • Q1 01:11 FG NYG (1:11) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 08:10 TD SF (8:10) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle to 11-M.Goodwin for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at NY 35. 35-YAC NYG 6 – SF 9
  • Q2 02:13 TD NYG (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 88-E.Engram for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in endzone. 0-YAC NYG 12 – SF 10
  • Q2 00:37 TD SF (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep left to 88-G.Celek for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-11-M.Goodwin was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Caught at NY 31. 31-YAC NYG 13 – SF 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) 3-C.Beathard right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – SF 23
  • Q4 09:27 TD SF (9:27) 22-M.Breida right guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – SF 30
  • Q4 01:07 TD NYG (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-R.Lewis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC NYG 19 – SF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 84%

    (12:44) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. Penalty on NYG-21-L.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 78%

    (7:28) 2-A.Rosas 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 62%

    (3:43) 44-K.Juszczyk right guard to NYG 36 for no gain (47-K.Sheppard).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (1:11) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (9:52) 2-A.Rosas 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:49) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 40 for 17 yards (45-D.Skinner). FUMBLES (45-D.Skinner), RECOVERED by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie at SF 42. 51-Z.DeOssie to SF 42 for no gain (97-D.Watson). 2 yards of loose ball yardage The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 39 for 16 yards (45-D.Skinner).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:01) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to SF 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 38 for 7 yards (58-C.Grant).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:01) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to SF 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 84-E.Eagan to NYG 10 for no gain (26-G.Mabin).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:49) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to NYG 32 for 14 yards (56-R.Foster). Caught at NY 23. 9-YAC

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-R.Lewis to NYG 46 for 9 yards (36-D.Johnson). Penalty on SF-36-D.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Caught at NY 46. 0-YAC

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen pushed ob at SF 43 for 4 yards (50-B.Coyle). Caught at SF 47. 4-YAC