Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 63

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 40 for 17 yards (45-D.Skinner). FUMBLES (45-D.Skinner), RECOVERED by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie at SF 42. 51-Z.DeOssie to SF 42 for no gain (97-D.Watson). 2 yards of loose ball yardage The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 17-V.Bolden to SF 39 for 16 yards (45-D.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model