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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. Penalty on NYG-21-L.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.67 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model