Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to TEN: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.079 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.185 EPA/dropback
- JAX defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- TEN offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
TEN
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:30 FG JAX (7:30) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 0 – JAX 3
- Q1 02:20 FG TEN (2:20) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – JAX 3
- Q2 00:04 FG TEN (:04) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – JAX 3
- Q3 09:27 FG TEN (9:27) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 9 – JAX 3
- Q3 06:43 TD TEN (6:43) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – JAX 3
- Q3 02:53 TD TEN (2:53) 82-D.Walker right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 22 – JAX 3
- Q4 10:08 TD TEN (10:08) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 29 – JAX 3
- Q4 07:15 TD JAX (7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – JAX 9
- Q4 04:17 TD TEN (4:17) 45-J.Fowler up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 36 – JAX 9
- Q4 02:15 TD JAX (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 37 – JAX 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-M.Lee to JAX 34 for 4 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 34.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 83%
(7:30) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 87%
(2:20) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:59) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-43-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for 9 yards (94-D.Smoot).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:27) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. TEN-13-T.Taylor was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to TEN 14, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:56) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 41, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%
(:04) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(9:27) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:39) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to TEN 20, Center-43-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson ran ob at JAX 34 for 46 yards (40-T.Bohanon).