Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(11:56) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 41, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.88 EP
57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model