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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to TEN 14, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model