Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.272 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.287 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
GB
ATL
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:30 TD ATL (8:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-21-H.Clinton-Dix, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty will be enforced before kickoff. GB 0 – ATL 6
- Q1 00:17 FG ATL (:17) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. GB 0 – ATL 10
- Q2 07:31 TD ATL (7:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ATL 16
- Q2 00:07 TD ATL (:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. GB 0 – ATL 23
- Q3 14:03 TD ATL (14:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Defensive Holding, declined. GB 0 – ATL 30
- Q3 09:23 TD GB (9:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – ATL 31
- Q3 04:15 TD ATL (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to GB 1 for 3 yards (42-M.Burnett). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – ATL 37
- Q3 00:41 TD GB (:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – ATL 37
- Q4 12:11 TD ATL (12:11) 26-T.Coleman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 15 – ATL 43
- Q4 06:48 TD GB (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Cook for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – ATL 44
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%
(5:39) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(:17) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:10) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to ATL 9, Center-61-B.Goode. 14-E.Weems to ATL 23 for 14 yards (91-J.Elliott).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 26%
(3:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.
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Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:49) 10-J.Schum punts 50 yards to ATL 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 57%
(2:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers right end to ATL 32 for 7 yards (23-R.Alford).
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Q4 GB 4th & 18 at the 63Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 28%
(10:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to ATL 29 for 34 yards (30-D.Olatoye).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 40 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%
(2:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 35 yards to GB 5, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.