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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP