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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 37

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers right end to ATL 32 for 7 yards (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model