Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.318 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) -0.036 EPA/dropback
- ARI offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- ATL on 7 more days rest than ARI
- ATL defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- ARI defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
ARI
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:45 TD ARI (9:45) 70-E.Boehm reported in as eligible. 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-J.Gresham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – ATL 0
- Q1 03:42 TD ATL (3:42) 76-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – ATL 6
- Q2 12:56 FG ARI (12:56) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – ATL 7
- Q2 08:36 FG ATL (8:36) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub. ARI 10 – ATL 10
- Q2 02:28 TD ATL (2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – ATL 16
- Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 13 – ATL 17
- Q3 02:59 TD ATL (2:59) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – ATL 23
- Q4 08:58 TD ATL (8:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – ATL 30
- Q4 04:48 TD ARI (4:48) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 31-D.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – ATL 31
- Q4 02:14 TD ATL (2:14) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – ATL 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%
(6:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to ARI 36 for 7 yards (36-D.Swearinger).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(12:56) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%
(8:36) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%
(6:31) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-E.Weems ran ob at ATL 16 for 5 yards (52-Z.Gooden).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:09) 6-M.Wile punts 57 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 29 for 6 yards (14-E.Weems).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 60%
(1:53) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to ATL 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:13) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-E.Weems to ATL 23 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%
(14:22) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Floyd (32-J.Collins).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 31-D.Johnson to ARI 37 for 9 yards (22-K.Neal).