Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 19 – Atlanta Falcons 38

(1:53) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 31-D.Johnson to ARI 37 for 9 yards (22-K.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model