Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(9:13) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-E.Weems to ATL 23 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model