Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- LA offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.163 vs Case Keenum (LA) -0.069 EPA/dropback
- DET defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
LA
DET
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:47 TD DET (10:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-W.Hayes]. LA 0 – DET 6
- Q1 05:24 TD LA (5:24) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – DET 7
- Q2 11:03 TD LA (11:03) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 17-C.Keenum scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – DET 7
- Q2 03:12 TD DET (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-A.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-33-E.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. LA 14 – DET 13
- Q3 09:52 TD DET (9:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-A.Boldin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – DET 20
- Q3 06:39 TD LA (6:39) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 88-L.Kendricks for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – DET 21
- Q4 14:16 TD LA (14:16) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – DET 21
- Q4 06:09 TD DET (6:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – DET 27
- Q4 01:33 FG DET (1:33) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 28 – DET 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 28%
(13:02) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 34-Z.Zenner right tackle to LA 49 for 2 yards (26-M.Barron).
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Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 55%
(1:59) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to LA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
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Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%
(3:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-A.Roberts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-33-E.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%
(:04) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley up the middle to DET 2 for -1 yards (93-T.Walker, 96-S.Charles).
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Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to DET 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.
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Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:07) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 2 yards (50-T.Armbrister).
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Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to DET 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-A.Roberts to DET 39 for 4 yards (34-C.Reynolds).
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%
(1:33) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.