Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Rams 21

(5:07) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 2 yards (50-T.Armbrister).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model