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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 94

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to DET 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 94, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 52, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model