Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- TB offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) +0.163 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.162 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
TB
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:32 FG TB (1:32) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – CAR 0
- Q2 12:42 TD CAR (12:42) 1-C.Newton right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams reports as eligible TB 3 – CAR 6
- Q2 09:34 FG CAR (9:34) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. TB 3 – CAR 10
- Q2 04:23 TD CAR (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-C.Artis-Payne right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CAR 16
- Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 82-J.Cotchery for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CAR 23
- Q3 09:21 TD CAR (9:21) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CAR 30
- Q3 04:53 TD TB (4:53) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – CAR 31
- Q4 07:29 TD CAR (7:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – CAR 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 21%
(4:40) 5-J.Schum punts 34 yards to CAR 19, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 27-R.McClain.
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Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%
(1:32) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
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Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(11:51) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to CAR 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 27-R.McClain.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%
(9:34) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
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Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:51) 5-J.Schum punts 33 yards to CAR 48, Center-48-A.DePaola. 27-R.McClain to TB 49 for 3 yards (85-E.Spencer).
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Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:06) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 30, Center-48-A.DePaola. 27-R.McClain to CAR 32 for 2 yards (89-R.Shepard). TB-89-R.Shepard was injured during the play.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:17) 8-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey to TB 22 for 5 yards (21-T.Williams). FUMBLES (21-T.Williams), RECOVERED by CAR-14-J.Webb at TB 17. 14-J.Webb to TB 3 for 14 yards (33-K.McFadden).
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Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%
(5:22) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate to CAR 42 for 10 yards (27-R.McClain).