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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 5-J.Schum punts 34 yards to CAR 19, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 27-R.McClain.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model