Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 8-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey to TB 22 for 5 yards (21-T.Williams). FUMBLES (21-T.Williams), RECOVERED by CAR-14-J.Webb at TB 17. 14-J.Webb to TB 3 for 14 yards (33-K.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model