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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Allen (22-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model