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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 22

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.18 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model