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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 2-J.Downs (41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EP