4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to IND 46 for 4 yards (23-D.Everette).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model