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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 90

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model