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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(7:54) Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model