Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 19-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to IND 4, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-34-K.Gushiken, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at IND 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model