Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.32 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -0.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model