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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model