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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 15 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model