Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 15 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model