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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model