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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP