4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 92

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 92, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP